Predictions
How can we make better predictions in an uncertain world?
4.6 (28)
43 mins
Enter the sphere of predictions and how they shape our understanding of the future. Also learn about innovative methods to improve forecast accuracy in various fields - from business to personal decision-making.
Ep 1:
Your Brain's Hidden Simulation
Your brain isn't reacting to reality—it's predicting it. Discover how dopamine fuels our forecasting addiction and why errors reveal more than truths.
Ep 2:
Why the Experts Get It Wrong
Renowned pundits fare worse than chance, while cold statistical models quietly outperform human intuition. Bias and noise sabotage forecasts—but there's a fix.
Ep 3:
Stepping Into Another Mind
Predicting others' actions means borrowing their eyes. We explore perspective-taking, and the emotional paradox of preparing for disasters we can't fully foresee.
Ep 4:
Reading Intent, Trusting Experience
Could a simple test reveal a stranger's true character? Explore why experience, objectivity, and personal stakes shape who predicts human behavior best.
Ep 5:
The Unpredictable Edge of Certainty
Chaos theory and ethical limits mean perfect prediction is a myth. From eclipses to workplace violence, we confront forecasting's ultimate boundaries.
Discussions (18)
Augustus
Level 10 · 8 mo agoDart monkeys beat experts
Leslie
Level 2 · 9 mo agoNathaniel dragging experts for losing to dart throwing monkeys is iconic. He exposed their overconfidence. That was some serious tea being spilled today.
Nova
Level 5 · 8 mo agoI knew those confident experts were full of it! The fact they lose to dart throwing monkeys is hilarious
